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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|