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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.